In a quick overview, VanEck envisions the long-awaited U.S. recession arriving in 2024, while still foreseeing approvals for spot bitcoin ETFs and the halving event propelling bitcoin to record highs by Q4. Other predictions from the investment manager for the upcoming year include the absence of an “ether flippening,” Solana’s continued outperformance, a notable resurgence in NFT activity, and the potential dethroning of Binance in spot trading.
Despite the anticipation of an impending U.S. recession in the coming year due to slowing economic momentum and cooling inflation, VanEck’s analysts, Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush, believe that approvals for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and the halving event could contribute to new all-time highs for bitcoin by the fourth quarter. They project over $2.4 billion flowing into these ETFs in Q1 if approved, with expectations of trading at approximately 0.1% spreads and zero commission at many brokerages, fostering increased demand.
While the SEC has yet to approve a spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S., the upcoming deadlines for decisions on applications from various firms, including VanEck, BlackRock, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie, are expected in mid-January. Analysts suggest a potential window for spot bitcoin ETF approval between January 5 and January 10.
VanEck anticipates bitcoin’s fourth halving in April, expecting it to pass without significant drama and projecting a rise above $48,000 post-halving. The analysts foresee bitcoin overcoming challenges in the U.S. election year, reaching an all-time high by November, and ultimately peaking in the cycle at up to $160,000. They even make a speculative call that if bitcoin reaches $100,000 by December, Satoshi Nakamoto might be named Time Magazine’s “Man of the Year.”
Addressing the competitive dynamics between ether and bitcoin, VanEck believes that ether won’t surpass bitcoin’s market cap in 2024 due to bitcoin’s clearer regulatory status. However, they anticipate ether to outperform mega-cap tech stocks and, following historical patterns, expect bitcoin to lead the rally initially, with ether catching up after the halving. They explicitly rule out the possibility of a “flippening” between the two cryptocurrencies.
